私たちは現在、インフレによる住宅ローンの上昇や生活費の高騰など、興味深い環境で生活しています。このような経済的諸課題に対して、自分の資金を有効に活用する必要性が高まっています。多くの投資家は、成長資産をポートフォリオに組み入れることで、対応しようとしています。しかし、COVID-19危機で実証されたように、市場が大幅に下落すと恐怖に負けるのが人間の性であり、投資家は防衛資産や現金に投資資金をシフトさせることになります。こうしたリスク回避行動は、特に退職者や退職前の人々に顕著です。彼らは、利益よりも損失をはるかに恐れる傾向があり、シーケンス・リスクへのエクスポージャーが高いことを考えれば、当然です。
残念なことに、このようなリスク回避の取引は、やがて市場が回復した時に投資家の不利益となる可能性があります。本稿では、危機的状況下でも投資を継続することの重要性について探ります。
2人の投資家が、2008年の年初に標準的な70/301グロース・ポートフォリオに10万ドルを投資した場合を考えてみます。投資家Aは、世界的金融危機（GFC）やCOVID-19パンデミックなどの市場危機、そしてその後の市場回復まで、全期間グロース・ポートフォリオに投資し続けることを選択します。
一方、投資家Bはリスク回避指向が強く、市場低迷期には神経質になる傾向が強まり、投資ポートフォリオのリスクを回避する強い傾向があります。簡便化のため、この投資家Bも70/30成長ポートフォリオを組んでいるものの、ポートフォリオが15%下落するたびに3ヵ月ごとに株式から現金に資産をシフトしていると仮定します。
図1のチャートは、2008年1月から2023年6月までの2人の投資家の累積パフォーマンスを視覚的に表しています。このデータは、投資家Aと投資家Bの対照的な結果を明示しています。
We are currently living through an interesting environment marked by rising mortgage costs and escalating costs of living due to inflation. In response to these economic challenges, there is a growing need to make your capital work for you. Many investors have chosen to achieve this by embracing growth assets within their portfolios. However, when the market encounters significant downturns, as demonstrated by the COVID-19 crisis, it’s human nature to succumb to fear, leading to investors shifting their investments towards defensive assets or cash. This risk-averting behaviour is particularly common amongst retirees and pre-retirees, who tend to fear losses far more than they value gains, and rightly so, given their heightened exposure to sequencing risk.
Unfortunately, this de-risking trade can prove detrimental to investors when markets eventually bounce back. In this discussion, we will explore the importance of staying invested during times of crisis.
Consider two investors, both initially investing $100,000 into a standard 70/301 growth portfolio at the beginning of 2008. Investor A chooses to remain invested in the growth portfolio for the entire period, throughout market crises, such as the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic, and subsequent market recoveries.
On the other hand, a hypothetical Investor B is more risk-averse, has a tendency to become increasingly nervous during market downturns and is more prone to de-risk their investment portfolio. For simplicity, let’s assume this investor is also in the 70/30 growth portfolio, but switches out of equities into cash for three months each time they experience a 15% fall in their portfolio.
The chart in Figure 1 offers a visual representation of the cumulative performance of the two investors spanning from January 2008 to June 2023. The data unequivocally demonstrates the contrasting outcomes for Investor A and Investor B.
Figure 1: Investors A and B, cumulative performance, January 2008 to June 2023
Investor A’s portfolio has exhibited strong growth over the past 15+ years, from an initial amount of $100,000 to $257,000. On the other hand, Investor B’s portfolio, though respectable at $213,000 during the same period, falls short by approximately 17% (or 1.1% annualised) when compared to the wealth amassed by Investor A.
This divergence in performance can be attributed to Investor B’s inclination to de-risk their portfolio during market turbulence, driven by understandable nervousness. Unfortunately, this resulted in crystallised losses and missed opportunities for subsequent market recoveries, ultimately leading to a less favourable financial outcome in the long-term.
It is important to recognise that this innate fear and flight to safety response during market crisis events is just human nature and is particularly tempting for those approaching retirement or in retirement. This is precisely where risk management strategies can be utilised to reduce the impact of large market drawdowns, giving investors more confidence to stay invested.
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1 A 70/30 growth portfolio consists of 35% ASX200 Total Return Index, 35% MSCI World ex Australia Net Total Return Index (AUD Unhedged), 14% Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index, 14% Bloomberg Barclays Global-Aggregate Total Return Index (AUD Hedged) and 2% Bloomberg AusBond Bank Bill Index.