新たな調査によると、オーストラリアの退職者の半分以上は、毎年、老齢年金よりも少ない支出であり、現在の退職に関する方針およびオーストラリア年金制度の戦略について意義ある疑問を呈しました。
ミリマンが行った最新の調査Retirement Expectations and Spending Profiles（ESP）で300,000人以上の退職者のリアルワールドの年間支出を分析した結果、年齢や地域によっても影響を受けますが、思いがけないことが判明しました。
退職者の行動を左右する動機を深く理解せずにオーストラリアの年金制度を強化する強制・任意の対応だけでは、退職後のライフスタイルを向上できるわけではないことを最新の調査が示しています。
一般的に使用される平均所得の50%という貧困ラインが通常多くの退職者を捉えることを考えると、驚くべき調査結果となりました。
例えば、オーストラリアにおける社会的貧困対策に関するオーストラリア審議会（Australian Council of Social Service Poverty in Australia）の最新レポートは、老齢年金受給者の13.9%が貧困ライン以下で生活していると推定していました。OECDによる2015年Pensions at a Glanceのレポートは、より明確な問題を特定しました。同レポートでは、年金生活者の三分の一以上が貧困ライン以下で生活しているとして、社会的公平性についてオーストラリアを33か国中下から2番目にランクしました。
一般的な対策と目標は、適切な退職後の収入（平均所得による貧困ラインを含む）に関する議論の出発点を提供するかもしれませんが、信頼できる確かなデータによると、それもまた間違った方向に誘導しかねないことを示しています。
こうした対策は、（ほとんどの調査が統計的に有意でないことから）毎年の老齢年金よりも少額しか消費しない退職者の大部分の動機や経験を説明できていません。
こうした疑問に対する答えは、退職者個人の状況によって大きく異なりますが、年金ファンドは、多くの可能性について検討すべきです。
退職者は、長生きリスクに対して自己保障を試みているのか？
オーストラリア政府による2015年 Intergenerational Reportによると、現在60歳の男性であればさらに26.4年間、60歳の女性の場合は29.1年間生きると想定されていることを考えると、退職資金を使い果すことは多くの人々にとって主要な懸念になっています。
積立金ベースの年金から最低法定年額を引き出している退職者の大多数にとって、この懸念は行動を左右する要因かもしれません。
Figure 1: Percentage of retirees drawing down their superannuation at the age-specific minimum rate, 2011-12a,b
However, the Age Pension, which can be viewed as a sovereign-backed perpetual lifetime annuity indexed to inflation, is traditionally viewed as a safety net rather than a discretionary income source for savings.
Are older retirees more prone to frugality given their experience of multiple recessions compared to younger generations?
While the Australian economy has suffered several slowdowns in recent decades, its last technical recession occurred in the early 1990s. Before that, the economy went through regular booms and busts. Many retirees today entered the workforce during the 1970s a period when the Australian economy suffered four recessions in a decade. Have these experiences made some retirees more cautious now that they are no longer in the workforce?
Is the desire to leave a bequest to adult children stronger than assumed? Does this include the family home, leaving significant housing equity untapped that could help fund retirement?
The family home has become a significant source of wealth for many older Australians as east coast residential property prices have soared in recent years. However, few retirees use this wealth to fund their retirement with reverse mortgages remaining deeply unpopular.
The majority of retirees want to ‘age in place’, viewing their home as another safety net if required to potentially pay for an aged care bond or other unexpected event, but plan to leave the home to their adult children.
Figure 2: Perceptions of the role of the family home in retirementa
Government policies, such as excluding the family home from the Age Pension assets test and state-imposed stamp duties on property transactions, have also encouraged retirees to hold on to their home. However, the 2017-2018 budget proposed allowing people over 65 to sell their primary residence and roll up to $300,000 per person into super.
Are retirees diverting savings to help their adult children enter the property market at the cost of their own retirement lifestyle?
Home ownership rates have plummeted in recent years as record low interest rates have spurred an investor-led housing boom. According to the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, couples (aged between 20 and 29) with kids aged younger than 14, have seen a 13% fall in house ownership, and single people in this same age bracket, also with kids younger than 14, have seen a 40% drop. Married couples, aged between 60 and 69, with no dependent kids, have seen a 1% increase, while single 50- to 59-year-olds, with kids, have seen a 7% increase.
There is some evidence that a rising proportion of parents are helping their adult children get a foot on the property ladder by guaranteeing home loans or providing a partial deposit.
What is the subjective experience of Australians in retirement? Has the financial services industry overestimated the actual cost of living in retirement or will spending pick up as the super system matures and people have higher balances?
This is a confronting question for many people that goes to the heart of our assumptions about work, lifestyle and the nature of retirement.
The HILDA survey has previously suggested that increases in age strongly reduce the odds of financial stress, beyond what can be accounted for by differences in education, marital status, labour market experiences, wealth or household income.
Financial stress classifies any individual who struggles to pay their utility bills, mortgage or rent on time, and has foregone necessities, pawned or sold something, or has sought financial assistance from friends, family or a welfare organisation. Financial stress is more common among young people (20- to 29-year-olds), with 56% experiencing financial stress in 2015, down from 61% from 2006. For individuals aged between 40 and 49, half experienced financial stress, compared to only 39% in 2006. Finally, for those aged over 70, only 13% experienced financial stress, compared to 10% in 2006.
A separate analysis of HILDA data, examining individuals’ self-reported changes in standard of living, financial security and overall happiness over the transition to retirement, found subjective well-being either improved or remained constant for the majority of people.
However, the research also found that people who were forced to retire early after losing their job or due to poor health, and then suffered lower-than-expected retirement incomes, reported significant declines in their well-being.
It is difficult to draw a direct line between this research and the knowledge that half of all retirees are spending less than the Age Pension.
What is certain is that more information is needed–something funds can obtain directly from their members. In this way, super funds’ general advice can be better aligned with the actual experience and needs of members. It is also part of an important–and broader–conversation about the adequacy of older Australians’ living standards after a lifetime in the workforce.
The full Milliman Retirement ESP report is published to subscribers each quarter. Contact Milliman senior consultant Jeff Gebler at [email protected] for more details.
Disclaimer
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