退職者支出把握には程遠い新たなCPI調整(英語版のみ)

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作成者 Jeff Gebler |  2018年3月8日

オーストラリアの新たに改訂された消費者物価指数(CPI)は、平均的世帯が何に対して支出をしているのかをより正確に表すかもしれませんが、退職者が直面する問題解決には程遠いものです。

オーストラリア統計局(ABS)は最近、様々な対象の商品およびサービスのCPIの加重見直しを6年ぶりに行い、過去の想定よりもインフレがむしろ弱まっていることを示しました。

一方、Milliman Retirement and Expectations Spending Profiles (ESP)サービスによると、様々な対象の商品およびサービスは、退職により生活費が激減した平均的退職者の実情とは大きく異なるままです。

ABSの改訂版CPI測定は、平均的世帯支出の上昇が想定よりも緩やかであることを示唆しています。

RBAはその後、2017年11月の金融政策声明の中で、基になるインフレ見通しを(目標の2%よりも低いままであるが3%へ)引き下げましたが、Milliman Retirement ESPは、退職者の実際の支出が65-69歳から70-74歳の間に約8%の低下することを示しています。

調査機関SuperRatingsによると、バランス型年金ファンドの半数以上(59%)がパフォーマンスをCPIに対比させていることを考えると、これが大きな食い違いの部分です。

How retirees’ basket of goods differs from CPI

The new CPI weightings show rising rental costs driving up the average household expenditure on housing, which rose from 13.2% to 14.8%. The ABS also estimated housing expenditure for self-funded retiree households (12.1%) and pensioner and beneficiary households (23.4%).

However, the vast majority of retirees own their own home and, according to real-world expenditure data captured by the Milliman Retirement ESP, spend just 7% of expenditure on housing. This is likely to rise as the east coast affordability crisis is already driving down home ownership levels, which will increasingly affect older Australians over time.

The revised CPI weightings also show health costs rising from 5.2% to 5.4%.

Real-world expenditure data captured through the Milliman Retirement ESP shows it much higher–about 12% of total expenditure for retirees aged 65-69. It also increases dramatically as retirees age even as their total expenditure inclusive of all categories falls.

This is still significantly higher expenditure on health than the ABS estimates for pensioner and beneficiary households (6.8%) and self-funded retiree households (10.3%, with more spent on dental and elective hospital procedures).

The new CPI weightings also show the largest increases (in dollar terms) in areas where retirees spent little: child care (127% increase), international holiday travel and accommodation (60% increase) and education (56% increase).

Figure 1: Composition of spending - couple

Source: Milliman Retirement Expectations and Spending Profiles Q2 2017. See full report for a full breakdown and labels of each spending component.

The benefits of real-world data compared to surveys

The ABS’s core CPI measure is a conglomerate of many different households and cannot reflect the specific behaviour of retirees. Its accuracy (and that of its self-funded retiree and pensioner and beneficiary households) is also limited by methodology.

The CPI item weightings are largely derived from the ABS’ Household Expenditure Survey (HES), which is conducted every five or six years (the 2017 CPI adjustment was based on surveys conducted in 2015-16).

This introduces a significant time lag. Surveys are also notorious for producing errors given the inability of people to accurately remember where they spend their money. The CPI measure also makes no allowance for the way households regularly adjust their spending depending on changes in preferences, income and relative prices.

The Milliman Retirement ESP differs significantly. It is based on the bank transaction data of more than 300,000 retirees and cross-referenced against other data sets such as property (CoreLogic) and retail spending (Woolworths).

There is no room for misremembering–it reveals retirees’ actual real expenditure each quarter. The quarterly data is current, which also reveals early expenditure and lifestyle trends that retirees themselves may not be aware of.

As the prudential regulator pressures super funds to justify their decisions made on behalf of members, it will become crucial to use big data such as the Milliman ESP to truly understand members.

It can help lead product development, refine advice and boost engagement by enriching our understanding of how retirees actually live.

The full Milliman Retirement ESP report is published to subscribers each quarter. Contact Milliman senior consultant Jeff Gebler at jeff.gebler@millilman.com for more details.

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